Vector-borne Infectious Diseases in Climate Change Investigations (VICCI):

Project 8.2: Population-based epidemiological risk assessment for lyme disease, hantavirus and leishmaniasis in Bavaria in the context of climate change

Project Director

Prof. Dr. Manfred Wildner, Dr. Christina Klinc, Dr. Wolfgang Hautmann und *PD *Dr.Dr. Andreas Sing, Section GE4 Public Health and *GE2 Section Infectiology, Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority, Oberschleißheim, Germany


Project 8.2 is an overarching cross-sectional workpackage which aims to draw together and evaluate the VICCI project results specifically with respect to health impacts for the Bavarian population. The main objective of this workpackage is an epidemiological risk assessment of vector-borne diseases affecting the population of Bavaria, in the context of climate change. The workpackage will primarily focus on three diseases (lyme disease, hanta virus and leishmaniasis) with a view to extending the project to other diseases in the future.

Taking into consideration the complex interactions of pathogen, vector, host and environment, workpackage 8.2 will assess the effects of climate change on disease presence or absence, as well as disease incidence and geographical and temporal variation in disease risk. A range of variables with potential impact on disease dynamics can be identified by teams of experts. Examples of variables to be considered in the risk assessment include population intrinsic factors (demography, age distribution, socioeconomic stratification), individual level factors (leisure activities, occupational exposure) as well as factors related to pathogen, vector and host biology (geography, vegetation, temperature, humidity). Due to uncertainties in the projection of a number of these variables, the resulting forecasts will be limited to statements on general disease trends and a number of potential scenarios will be developed for differential risk assessment. Furthermore, using decision analysis modelling, the impact of different prevention strategies (e.g. public health education, medical intervention) on the health of the population will be evaluated.