Vector-borne Infectious Diseases in Climate Change Investigations (VICCI):
Project 8.2: Population-based epidemiological risk assessment for lyme disease, hantavirus and leishmaniasis in Bavaria in the context of climate change
Project Director
Prof. Dr. Manfred Wildner, Dr. Christina Klinc, Dr. Wolfgang Hautmann und *PD *Dr.Dr. Andreas Sing, Section GE4 Public Health and *GE2 Section Infectiology, Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority, Oberschleißheim, Germany
Overview
Project 8.2 is an overarching cross-sectional workpackage which aims to draw together and evaluate the VICCI project results specifically with respect to health impacts for the Bavarian population. The main objective of this workpackage is an epidemiological risk assessment of vector-borne diseases affecting the population of Bavaria, in the context of climate change. The workpackage will primarily focus on three diseases (lyme disease, hanta virus and leishmaniasis) with a view to extending the project to other diseases in the future.
Taking into consideration the complex interactions of pathogen, vector, host and environment, workpackage 8.2 will assess the effects of climate change on disease presence or absence, as well as disease incidence and geographical and temporal variation in disease risk. A range of variables with potential impact on disease dynamics can be identified by teams of experts. Examples of variables to be considered in the risk assessment include population intrinsic factors (demography, age distribution, socioeconomic stratification), individual level factors (leisure activities, occupational exposure) as well as factors related to pathogen, vector and host biology (geography, vegetation, temperature, humidity). Due to uncertainties in the projection of a number of these variables, the resulting forecasts will be limited to statements on general disease trends and a number of potential scenarios will be developed for differential risk assessment. Furthermore, using decision analysis modelling, the impact of different prevention strategies (e.g. public health education, medical intervention) on the health of the population will be evaluated.
Further Information
- VICCI collaborative research project: aim, background, contact persons
Other VICCI Projects
- VICCI Project 1: Prospective Study on the Presence of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. species in Ixodes ricinus in Bavaria
- VICCI Project 2: Monitoring Tick activity in Recreational Areas: Temporal and Spacial Dynamics and Dependence on Environmental Factors
- VICCI Project 3: Study and epidemiological Computermodelling on vector-borne infectious diseases in Bavaria
- VICCI Project 4: Risk assessment of tick-borne diseases in bavarian public parks
- VICCI Project 5: Study on the presence of rodent-transmitted zoonoses along a climate gradient in the Bavarian Forest National Park
- VICCI Project 6: Autochthonous Leishmaniasis in Bavaria: Studies of Vector Prevalence and of Animal Reservoirs
- VICCI Project 7: Biogeographical analysis of health-relevant species and projection of their spreading tendencies under changing climatic conditions in Bavaria
- VICCI Project 8.1: Study Center
- VICCI Project 8.3: Project Coordination
